A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
