Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability provided through current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.